Richardson to send supporters to Obama?

The Huffington Post and New York Times are reporting that, in the event that he doesn't receive 15% of the vote in a precinct, Governor Richardson will direct his people to re-vote for Barack Obama. A candidate must reach the 15% mark in order to have their votes counted. Iowa has 1,784 precincts up for grabs. According to the Times, "In return, the Obama adviser said, Obama forces will lend support to Mr. Richardson at caucuses where Mr. Obama turns out more backers than he needs to win any additional delegates."

Both campaigns have denied the reports. The story originated from a leak in the Obama camp.

Why would Richardson choose Obama? Strategy for the long-run. While Richardson is a long-time political ally of the Clintons, and support for Hillary Clinton would go a long way toward ensuring a nomination for Vice President (he is rumored to be Clinton's top choice), Richardson and the senator have opposite views on Iraq, which is the governor's main issue. John Edwards aligns most closely with Richardson on Iraq, but it's possible that the governor does not see Edwards as a viable long-term candidate--Edwards is far behind Obama and Clinton in most other state polls. By supporting Obama, whose views on Iraq resemble Richardson's, the governor could be establishing some good will for the future, if Obama is indeed the nominee. It's unlikely that he'd be Obama's VP choice (two minorities on one ticket could not fly), but he could ensure a high level cabinet position: State, Defense, etc.

Dennis Kucinich has already directed his voters to the Obama camp. In 2004, Kucinich's support of Edwards went a long way toward ensuring the senator's second place finish. With two candidates backing--and possibly a third's, depending on which way Joe Biden swings--and a lead in the poll, Obama has a very good chance of winning Iowa and gaining serious momentum for the later states.

--Wyndam

The role of Bill Richardson in Iowa

Believe it: Bill Richardson can, and probably will, decide who wins Iowa.

It is unlikely, at this stage, that Richardson will win the state--while that's obviously his goal, I think the campaign would be ecstatic with a third or second place finish. There may be just a candidate or two too many to leap to claim victory.

However, that doesn't mean he can't have a profound impact on who wins the state. Iowa has an unusual caucus system: in order to have their votes counted in one of Iowa's 1784 districts, a candidate must receive 15% or more of the vote. If a candidate does not get 15% of the vote, then his supporters are free to vote again for someone who does reach the 15% threshold.

This where the second-tier candidates can decide who wins each district--they can direct their voters to some other candidate. Voters, of course, are not obligated to follow such orders, but in the past, they have generally complied with their candidate's wishes. And, all of a sudden, a district can swing from one front runner to another.

Hypothetical example: Hillary Clinton received 31% of the vote in District A. Barack Obama got 35%. John Edwards has 18%. Obama has seemingly eeked out a close victory, but wait! Joe Biden, who received 11% of the vote, instructs his supporters to vote for Clinton. Some do, and Clinton ends up edging Obama by a few points.

Bill Richardson will receive 15% + of the vote in many districts, but certainly not all of them. As the leading second-tier candidate, he'll likely have the most voters to give in the districts where he doesn't reach the 15% margin. So, who will he direct his people to vote for?

Dennis Kucinich has already told his supporters to support Obama in the districts where Kucinich doesn't qualify. But Kucinich is a third-tier candidate, and unless the race is exceptionally tight, he doesn't figure to make much of a difference. The people who can change the tide of the election are Biden, Richardson and maybe Chris Dodd. Of that group, Richardson will have the most to give.

So what does he do? He's been a long political ally of the Clintons, despite his recent negative comments on Hillary, so does he send his people her way? It's also been rumored that Richardson is Clinton's top choice for Vice-President--would he give her his people as an act of good will to secure that nomination? Or, will he concentrate on becoming president, and thus send his voters toward Obama/Edwards in attempt to stop Clinton from winning Iowa and thus halt her momentum going into New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada, where she is leading? By doing the latter, he can create more parity at the top of the Democratic race, which leaves the door open to more high-finishes for Richardson.

No matter what he chooses, the Markos Zuniga, the founder of the Daily Kos, feels that "Richardson will get to play kingmaker."

Iraq is Richardson's main issue, and Edwards's views on the conflict come closest to matching Richardson's--Clinton's are far off. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

--Wyndam

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EDIT: The Daily Kos (different writer this time) agrees again re: Richardson's "kingmaker" status.

Compare the Candidates!

I'm asked this frequently: "Where can I find a good comparison of all the candidates on the issues?"

Good question! Here's the answer:

I generally use Vote Gopher for these purposes. You can compare candidates by issue, and they give you quotes to back it up. Issues 2000 (a.k.a. On The Issues) does the same (yes, it's updated to 2008) and is more extensive, but for the major issues, I find Vote Gopher more user-friendly.

My favorite site, though, is Open Secrets, which logs all monetary transactions made by the candidates (from the initial donation to where the money is spent). A great insight into the world of political fund raising, and where the money goes.

But if you want to compare the candidates side-by-side on one sheet of paper, I suggest getting a back issue of the New York Times from December 30. On pages 16-17 of the National Section (the A section, in this case), there is a full, broadsheet chart that includes the positions of all the major candidates from both parties (that means no Duncan Hunter, Dennis Kucinich, and certainly no Mike Gravel) on some of the main issues--Iraq, Health Care, Taxes, Detainees, Interrogation, Immigration, Energy and Climate Change. It's not perfect, but it's the easiest way to compare the candidates. And if you can't get a hold of that, the Times has a nice section with the candidates' biographies, web sites and relevant articles.

--Wyndam