Three likely Republican retentions (AK, MS, KY)
Two leaning Republican retentions (OR, ME)
Two likely Democratic retention (AR, NJ)
One leaning Democratic retention (SD)
One leaning Democratic takeover (VA)
Five tossups (NM, NH, MN, LA, CO)
Before the tossups, this would equate to the Democrats picking up one seat out of nine. In the tossup states, the Democrats have the best shots to win in Colorado, New Hampshire (very close) and New Mexico (stronger possibility of Democratic takeover than CO or NH). This would mean that the Democrats would pick up four seats, retain three and lose one (Louisiana)--all told, that's a three seat Democratic shift after only 14 of 35 races have been decided.