Last night was not an example of the Bradley Effect!

The talk of the day is how Barack Obama was a victim of the Bradley Effect last night, meaning that his poll numbers were inflated because he was black (people tend to say they'll vote for a black candidate because they feel guilty otherwise, but then when they actually vote, they go with the white candidate).

Here's the thing: his poll numbers were not inflated. He got 37% of the vote in New Hampshire. He was projected to get 38.3% of the vote, based on the RCP average. A 1.3% decrease isn't indicative of the Bradley Effect: if anything, the discrepancy is due to the massive--and frankly, unrealistic--surge he got after Iowa.

Hillary Clinton led in the state up until Iowa. This isn't a major upset, and this isn't indicative of the Bradley Effect. This is the country righting itself after fueling Obama's hype for the past week. Clinton was expected to win New Hampshire.

Ponder this, though: Maybe Iowa was the reverse of the Bradley Effect. Undecided voters supporters of second-tier candidates had to publicly choose who they'd caucus with. Did white guilt play a role? If Iowa was a normal primary, would Obama have won by such a wide margin?

Food for thought.

--Wyndam

Just so we're clear

According to his campaign, Governor Richardson finished with about 7% of the vote in Iowa during the first round of voting. However, because he failed to reach the 15% viability mark, many of his supporters had to re-vote, and his final tally dropped to 2%.

While the 7% finish is still significantly less than the governor had hoped for, it's in line with the most recent Iowa poll numbers, and still much better than the paltry 2% everyone is reporting.

--Wyndam

Final Iowa results

With 100% of precincts reporting...

Democrats
Barack Obama 38%
John Edwards 30%
Hillary Clinton 29%
Bill Richardson 2%
Joe Biden 1%

Republicans
Mike Huckabee 34%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 10%
Rudy Giuliani 4%
Duncan Hunter 1%

Biden, Dodd drop out

After poor showings in Iowa, Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have dropped out of the presidential race.

I wonder if this will help Bill Richardson--there are no longer other second-tier candidates to split the vote with, which the LA Times said hurt him in Iowa.

--Wyndam

Barack Obama wins Iowa

...according to CNN and MSNBC.

72% of precincts reporting, and he has a 4% lead over Clinton and Edwards.

Seems very close, but I'll trust the experts.

--Wyndam

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Edit: 91% of precincts reporting, and Obama has a 7% lead over Clinton and Edwards. I have to believe he was the "second-choice" of many Biden, Richardson and Dodd supporters.

Mike Huckabee wins Iowa

...according to both CNN and FoxNews.

Only 15% of precincts are reporting, but both organizations are very confident in their projection.

--Wyndam

With 17% of precincts reporting...

Edwards 34%
Clinton 32%
Obama 31%
Richardson 2%

Still very early, we have a lot more to go.

Also, the Obama camp is predicting a turnout of 207,000 people. Most were predicting a turnout of 160,000-180,000. This is very good for Clinton and Obama, and not so good for Edwards, because most of his support is in rural counties, which are less populated than the urban areas where Clinton and Obama are popular.

So expect Edwards to drop off as the night goes on.

--Wyndam

Interesting strategy notes from inside the caucuses

Two quick tidbits from CNN:

1. In one precinct, the Edwards camp has set up next to Joe Biden's supporters. The Edwards people are counting on Biden not reaching the 15% threshold, which would mean his supporters would need to re-vote. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama's people are on the other side of the room, which is a long walk through the Edwards supporters, who will undoubtedly be trying to swing them their way. If for no other reason than Biden's people get fed up with the walk, and thus stay close and caucus with Edwards, then Edwards benefits. It seems so basic and, to a point, primitive, but a candidate can use all the help he can get, no matter how he gets it.

2. Some precinct captains for the second-tier candidates who receive 10-15% of the vote are urging the captains of the winners of the first vote of their precinct to send them voters to reach the 15% benchmark. The front runner would still win the precinct, but the second-tier candidate would be able to have their votes counted. If the winner of the precinct does not give them their extra people, then the second-tier candidate's captain will send his people to another front runner, which would almost ensure that the winner of the first vote would lose on the re-vote.

--Wyndam

Entrance Polls

CNN is reporting that the earliest entrance polls (tallied as people walk into their precincts to caucus) have Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama neck-and-neck in the Democratic primary, with John Edwards a bit behind. No mention of Bill Richardson's status. In the Republican field, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are leading the pack.

--Wyndam

Richardson denies that he will direct supporters to Obama

The governor was just on CNN's "The Situation Room," and declared that "people can make up their own minds" about who to support if he doesn't reach the 15% viability mark in a precinct. He does not have any arrangements with other campaigns, and will not tell his supporters who to re-vote for. Previous reports said that he had reached a deal with Barack Obama's campaign to send supporters his way.

--Wyndam

Richardson to send supporters to Obama?

The Huffington Post and New York Times are reporting that, in the event that he doesn't receive 15% of the vote in a precinct, Governor Richardson will direct his people to re-vote for Barack Obama. A candidate must reach the 15% mark in order to have their votes counted. Iowa has 1,784 precincts up for grabs. According to the Times, "In return, the Obama adviser said, Obama forces will lend support to Mr. Richardson at caucuses where Mr. Obama turns out more backers than he needs to win any additional delegates."

Both campaigns have denied the reports. The story originated from a leak in the Obama camp.

Why would Richardson choose Obama? Strategy for the long-run. While Richardson is a long-time political ally of the Clintons, and support for Hillary Clinton would go a long way toward ensuring a nomination for Vice President (he is rumored to be Clinton's top choice), Richardson and the senator have opposite views on Iraq, which is the governor's main issue. John Edwards aligns most closely with Richardson on Iraq, but it's possible that the governor does not see Edwards as a viable long-term candidate--Edwards is far behind Obama and Clinton in most other state polls. By supporting Obama, whose views on Iraq resemble Richardson's, the governor could be establishing some good will for the future, if Obama is indeed the nominee. It's unlikely that he'd be Obama's VP choice (two minorities on one ticket could not fly), but he could ensure a high level cabinet position: State, Defense, etc.

Dennis Kucinich has already directed his voters to the Obama camp. In 2004, Kucinich's support of Edwards went a long way toward ensuring the senator's second place finish. With two candidates backing--and possibly a third's, depending on which way Joe Biden swings--and a lead in the poll, Obama has a very good chance of winning Iowa and gaining serious momentum for the later states.

--Wyndam

Thankfully, the media has already cast your vote for you

The supporters of second-tier candidates (God, do I hate that phrase. Can we get the ball moving on a new way to say "non-front runner"? Thanks) have long claimed that they are ignored by the mainstream media, and as a result, their campaigns suffer--we did so just a few days ago. Whether we like it or not (we don't), the media plays an enormous role in getting candidates' messages, platforms and ideas out to the public. Without coverage for all, there is no level playing field--all the people hear are the names of a few front runners. And the media goes a long way toward making your decision for you, as the only names you recognize on the ballot are the ones they have circulated.

Proving this point with substantial evidence, though, would take months of research into all coverage of the election--right now, we go with what we know to be true. But the media has now gone and proved our point for us: in the debates immediately preceding the New Hampshire caucus, only candidates who are polling at 5% or higher in the Granite State, or placed fourth or higher in the Iowa caucus will be allowed to participate.

Bill Richardson will be allowed to debate: not only is he polling at above 5% in New Hampshire, but he is widely expected to place fourth (or, hopefully, higher) in Iowa. He will join Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. However, the rest of the Democratic field is left on the outside looking in. Joe Biden, despite his recent small surge in the poll, has no guarantee that he'll be invited. Neither do Chris Dodd or Dennis Kucinich. Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson have all be invited to the Republican debate, but Ron Paul (whose supporters are making a big stink out of this, and rightfully so, especially because Paul leads Thompson in many polls) and Duncan Hunter will likely be left out.

To their credit, Clinton and Obama have spoken out against this policy, saying that the people of New Hampshire/U.S.A. should be allowed to hear all views, and not just those of a select group. Edwards has decided to effectively not comment on the matter, which has drawn the ire of some.

This directive is of course troublesome. By constricting the number of people allowed to debate, ABC and Fox News (the debates' sponsors) are ostensibly censoring the lesser known candidates and, in the process, infringing upon and limiting the national debate. This is especially troublesome when these media companies, which are "unbiased," may be making these decisions for their own political reasons.

Fortunately, some are fighting back, and for once, the ferocity of Paul's supporters is an asset to all: supporters are engineering a sell-off of NewsCorp's (Fox News's parent company) stock.

Good for them--hopefully, this is resolved so that all can speak in this forum. All candidates should be allowed to participate. It shouldn't be a debate.

--Wyndam

Mike made calls for Richardson. Will you?

Michael Lipkin here again with a piece on rallying support for Richardson via phone banking.

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I hope you all had a fun New Year’s. But now we’re officially in 2008, which means it’s finally an election year. Iowans are just itching to vote with their primary only two days away. All the articles I’ve read recently stress how on edge everyone is, the flurry if emails being sent this way and that and the last minute campaign ploys.

Bill Richardson is no exception. I’ve gotten no less than three messages in the past two days about how much my money is needed more than ever. But the ever-strapped-for-cash student I am, I honestly don’t have the $50, 100 or 200 they constantly ask for. But what I do have is time.

Bored just rattling around this break, I decided to take the Richardson campaign up on an offer they proposed a week ago. I called voters. Anyone can go to the Richardson website, register and be provided with a list of 30 or so registered voters in Iowa and convenient summaries of the governor’s stances on important issues.

At first I was a little nervous. I generally dislike people calling with a pitch, regardless of the “product” as a rule of thumb, and I’m pretty sure I’m not alone. So the prospect of me calling people of the blue made me a little uneasy.

But once I sucked it up, it wasn’t that bad. Well, after the first couple rejections at least—the mid-West politeness helped. For every six people that hung up almost immediately, there were two who patiently listened and one who actually responded with questions and comments.

Some people were already pro-Richardson, in which case I suggested they might want to call some people. Others were die-hard Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama supporters, who quickly thanked me for my time and hung up. But there were one or two that were genuinely undecided. These were the guys who listened without interruption to my short spiel and asked something at the end, like why I supported Richardson in particular, or what the details of his Iraq policy are. Not to sound cliché, but for a those calls, I actually felt like I had in some small way helped the governor’s campaign. I sincerely thank all those that accepted my brief commentary on my candidate and hope they spread the word.

So I encourage anyone with a few minutes to spare to go to the campaign website and call a few people up. It could make all the difference.

Oh and by the way, the New York Times had an article today about the impact bloggers make on campaigns. Here’s to the Richardson Campus!

The role of Bill Richardson in Iowa

Believe it: Bill Richardson can, and probably will, decide who wins Iowa.

It is unlikely, at this stage, that Richardson will win the state--while that's obviously his goal, I think the campaign would be ecstatic with a third or second place finish. There may be just a candidate or two too many to leap to claim victory.

However, that doesn't mean he can't have a profound impact on who wins the state. Iowa has an unusual caucus system: in order to have their votes counted in one of Iowa's 1784 districts, a candidate must receive 15% or more of the vote. If a candidate does not get 15% of the vote, then his supporters are free to vote again for someone who does reach the 15% threshold.

This where the second-tier candidates can decide who wins each district--they can direct their voters to some other candidate. Voters, of course, are not obligated to follow such orders, but in the past, they have generally complied with their candidate's wishes. And, all of a sudden, a district can swing from one front runner to another.

Hypothetical example: Hillary Clinton received 31% of the vote in District A. Barack Obama got 35%. John Edwards has 18%. Obama has seemingly eeked out a close victory, but wait! Joe Biden, who received 11% of the vote, instructs his supporters to vote for Clinton. Some do, and Clinton ends up edging Obama by a few points.

Bill Richardson will receive 15% + of the vote in many districts, but certainly not all of them. As the leading second-tier candidate, he'll likely have the most voters to give in the districts where he doesn't reach the 15% margin. So, who will he direct his people to vote for?

Dennis Kucinich has already told his supporters to support Obama in the districts where Kucinich doesn't qualify. But Kucinich is a third-tier candidate, and unless the race is exceptionally tight, he doesn't figure to make much of a difference. The people who can change the tide of the election are Biden, Richardson and maybe Chris Dodd. Of that group, Richardson will have the most to give.

So what does he do? He's been a long political ally of the Clintons, despite his recent negative comments on Hillary, so does he send his people her way? It's also been rumored that Richardson is Clinton's top choice for Vice-President--would he give her his people as an act of good will to secure that nomination? Or, will he concentrate on becoming president, and thus send his voters toward Obama/Edwards in attempt to stop Clinton from winning Iowa and thus halt her momentum going into New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada, where she is leading? By doing the latter, he can create more parity at the top of the Democratic race, which leaves the door open to more high-finishes for Richardson.

No matter what he chooses, the Markos Zuniga, the founder of the Daily Kos, feels that "Richardson will get to play kingmaker."

Iraq is Richardson's main issue, and Edwards's views on the conflict come closest to matching Richardson's--Clinton's are far off. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

--Wyndam

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EDIT: The Daily Kos (different writer this time) agrees again re: Richardson's "kingmaker" status.

Richardson Picks up Key New Hampshire Endorsement

Bill Richardson received a belated Christmas present today: the endorsement of the Conway Daily Sun, a newspaper in the Mount Washington Valley area of New Hampshire.The full editorial is below--overall, it touches on his foreign affairs experience and political clout at home and abroad.

--Wyndam

Bill Richardson, the only heavy-weight in bout for Democratic nomination

Sen. Joe Biden, a contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, said in a recent interview that if it weren't for Iowa and New Hampshire, the candidate with the most money would always win.

Retail politics works. And it's not overstating it to say that because N.H. voters see, hear and meet the candidates in person, we are better informed than voters in the rest of country, who rely primarily on electronic media.

The result: N.H. voters often pick winners, and if not winners, candidates who, in hindsight, should have won. How much better off would the Republican Party-and the United States-be today if the rest of the country had followed New Hampshire eight years ago and elected

Sen. John McCain?

In 2000, the Sun was the only newspaper in New Hampshire to endorse McCain in the Republican primary. In 2004, we supported Gen. Wesley Clark over Sen. John Kerry in the Democratic primary. Granted, neither won, but we feel as good about those selections today as we did then.

We live in a world where Russia's leader may rewrite his country's constitution to maintain power, and where violence is often the political tool of choice, as in much of the Middle East. It is remarkable, and a testament to the strength of this country, that the next leader of the free world understands the real power of this country is in its people, and the path to the White House includes running the gauntlet at little N.H. newspapers like the Sun.

The editorial staff of the Sun is extraordinarily fortunate to have had exclusive access to the candidates. Without handlers at their sides or the national media butting in, most of the candidates have given our eight writers and editors an hour to engage in freewheeling question-and-answer exchanges.

Our staff takes seriously its bit part in selecting the next president. It is impossible to completely discount the "electability" factor and screen out mainstream media, but each of us weighs heavily what we observe in these editorial board interviews.

In our opinion, this year's Democrats are stronger than we've ever seen, and out of three that we believe could be good presidents, we endorse N.M. Gov. Bill Richardson.

It boils down to this: Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards are clearly highly principled people of integrity, and in another race the Sun would have supported one of them.

While Obama and Edwards have the big media budgets, neither has the experience of Richardson. And as for Hillary Clinton, this is what fringe candidate and straight-talking former Sen. Mike Gravel says.

"The Clintons should read the Constitution, eight years is all they get."

A handful of years as senator for each of them simply does not stack up to Richardson's powerful resume as a former congressman, energy secretary, U.N. ambassador, and now, governor of New Mexico.

Like our own Gov. John Lynch, Richardson is a big hit in his home state, where he is considered one of the nation's most environmentally-conscious governors. In New Mexico, he has raised the minimum wage, given all children under 5 access to health insurance, cut taxes and is pro-business.

On the national level, his experience negotiating with bad boys like Saddam Hussein, Fidel Castro and the North Koreans is world-renowned. Richardson gained the reputation as Pres. Bill Clinton's top international troubleshooter, and during the '90s humorously referred to himself as the "undersecretary of thugs." His success as a negotiator also earned him four nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Richardson has heavyweight credentials for a heavyweight job; Obama, Edwards and Clinton, by comparison, have barely found their way into the ring.

The knock against Richardson is that he doesn't have the dynamic personality of Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton, although in person he's funny and engaging. Asked about this rap and to compare himself to Bill Clinton, Richardson says, "Yes, Clinton can electrify a room, but I can get it done." We're convinced he can, and we ask you to join us in voting for him.

Richardson only ten points behind Obama in Iowa

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is out. Here are the results, and keep in mind that Richardson's numbers had been lagging as of late, despite his insistence that his popularity was steadily growing. Apparently, the governor was right. Let's see if this trend continues.

John Edwards: 24%
Hillary Clinton: 23%
Barack Obama: 22%
Bill Richardson: 12%

--Wyndam

What can be gained by a third place finish in Iowa?

David Yepsen wrote a piece yesterday for the Des Moines Register in which he examines the benefits and disadvantages of a third place finish in Iowa.

Yepsen opines that in the Democratic race, a third place finish would be bad. The top three candidates (Barack Obama, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton) are all within a point or two of each other, based off recent polls. Eventually, the primary race with narrow itself down, and no one wants to be left behind. A third place finish for Clinton or Obama, who are perceived as the two front runners in a more general sense, would weaken their chances in the later primaries against each other, and such a result would be particularly disasturous for Edwards because, as Yepsen writes, "He's already seen as a bit of a one-trick pony who has a great campaign in Iowa and little elsewhere."

But Yepsen says that for the Republicans, finishing in third place could be a good thing. Instead of a "Big 3," there is currently only a "Big 2," Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Since both have double digit leads over the second-tier candidates, it's unlikely that either will finish third. That means that for Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani (who leads in general election polls), Ron Paul and John McCain, a third place finish solidifies them as the top candidate of the second-tier, and is a potential spring board to greater things in New Hampshire and further.

Yepsen describes Governor Richardson as such: "Polls also show there is so much distance between the top three and the bottom tier of Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd that their hopes for a third-place showing would seem to be dimming."

This is a perfectly valid statement: in the recent polls, Richardson is at 5% in Iowa, over 20% behind the three front runners. And he has dipped off in recent weeks, so much so that he is no longer the clear top-of-the-second tier candidate: Joe Biden has begun to catch up to him.

To hear Richardson describe it though, 40% of Iowa voters are undecided with many make up their minds in the last week before the caucus. He also has a history of defying huge poll deficits.

So, although we may think we know the governor's rank, the truth is, we have no idea. And while Richardson will of course aim for victory, it is not likely--even second place would take a small miracle. A third place finish, though, is not entirely out of the question. It's a (very) long shot--even I can admit that. But it's not as hopeless as Yepsen and the rest of his ilk make it out to be. And let's just say it does happen. What then?

Obviously, it can not be a negative for the governor, who has stated several times that third place (or higher) finishes in the early caucuses are necessary for a successful campaign over the long term. If Richardson could pull a third place finish, then Yepsen's scenario for the Democrats gets rewritten, and it would almost resemble that of the Republicans.

But I think such a finish for Richardson would have a greater effect than that. Whereas one of the second tier Republicans (Thompson, Giuliani, etc.) is expected to finish third, Richardson is not. The momentum gained by the Republican third-place finisher would likely come at the expense of other second tier candidates (read: not that much) and Romney and Huckabee, who are the front runners in New Hampshire and Michigan as well, would continue to reign supreme over the Republican primary.

But if Richardson finished third, he could potentially pull support from one of the three current Democratic front runners, since one would have to finish fourth in order for Richardson to do so--such a result would throw their campaign in shambles, and all but end it. The voters he could siphon from them would be of much greater quantity than the Republican third-place finisher could pull. Even Edwards, whose numbers drop off significantly after Iowa, would give Richardson a large contingency of voters. A Clinton or Obama debacle in Iowa would be the best possible result of the governor.

Of course, no matter who falls to let Richardson in, it is all but guaranteed that some of their supporters will go to the two remaining front runners. But by establishing himself as a legitimate alternative in Iowa, Bill Richardson has an excellent chance to win over more voters and gain the momentum he needs going into New Hampshire and beyond.

--Wyndam

Tonight, speak directly to Bill Richardson!

Yesterday's theme was videos; today's seems to be phone calls.

Tonight, Governor Richardson, along with campaign manager Dave Contarino and deputy campaign manager Amanda Cooper will have a conference call with Americans across the country that you can join. The call is at 9:20 EST. To get on it, all you have to do is RSVP, and then call in. This site has the RSVP form, and the phone number/passcode you need to get on the call.

But the phone calls don't stop there: after (or before) you've spoken with the governor, help him out by calling Iowan voters and discussing Governor Richardson's plans with them. For those of us who, unfortunately, can not make it to Iowa to campaign for him, this is an excellent opportunity to help the cause. Go to this site to get started. It has numbers for you to call, talking points and speaking tips. You can do it from wherever you want, whenever you want.

Let's start those phone banks...now!

--Wyndam

Some Christmas Videos

Merry Christmas, everyone!

At The Richardson Campus, we are devoted to getting student views on Governor Richardson out to the public. I have scoured the web (all right, YouTube) to find a few videos of students in action, supporting the campaign with their creativity, intelligence and initiative. And, in the holiday spirit of giving, here are three of the best clips for your enjoyment.

Drake student Max Maher tells why he is going to caucus for Gov. Bill Richardson.



Students from Dartmouth College and Tufts University show their support for Gov. Bill Richardson.



I'm not sure if this student made, but I like the ingenuity of this video. It was originally created for the Genius Rocket primary, where movies are made in support of each candidate. This clip combines the two entries for Governor Richardson.

--Wyndam

Iowa Primary Poll Analysis

With less than a month until the Iowa primary, Bill Richardson is currently polling at fourth, behind Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards.

In Iowa, Richardson has been treading at around 8-10% for most of the campaign, while the three front runners hover around 20-30%. He hit a peak in late August at 14% in a Strategic Vision poll, but dropped off (he seemed to lose voters to Obama) and recent numbers have not been favorable: He was only at 4% in an American Research Group poll at the end of November. It should be noted, though, that in a Rasmussen poll taken the same week, he was at 10%. In the weeks since, his poll average has climbed back to the 10% mark.

Richardson has concentrated the majority of his efforts on the Iowa caucus, and has just finished a tour in which he spoke in all of Iowa's 99 counties. Iowa is Richardson's best chance to finish near the top in an early primary. Edwards has all but taken up residence in the state, and his popularity there is huge. This means that the vote at the top, which is usually split only between Obama and Clinton, is actually split three ways--Edwards is within six points of both Obama and Clinton. And so Richardson, even at 10%, is still only 15 percentage points behind the three front runners. If he makes a late push, he could finish third or higher. In an interview with the Quad City Times, Brian Kingsolver, a Democratic Party county chairman in Iowa, said, "He will surprise a lot of people on caucus night. I could see him pulling second (place) or third."

And indeed, polls can be deceiving. According to the same Quad City Times article, Richardson was a 30 point underdog when he first ran for congress in New Mexico--he ended up losing by a very slim margin. He has shown that, even though polls may not show it, he is an attractive candidate and a good campaigner who can make leaps on election night.

Additionally, his opponents may have inflated numbers: Obama, for example, may have to deal with what is known as the Bradley Effect--in essence, people feel guilty telling pollsters that they won't vote for a black candidate, even though they will go on to vote for their opposition. This leads to a spike in the polls that are not indicative of future performance in the actual election.

That's not to say that Richardson wouldn't like to be higher in the polls. But after canvasing Iowa and getting out his message, he could finish higher than predicted and build some momentum going into New Hampshire.

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The Richardson Campus got its first press coverage yesterday on "Blogging Bill," a site created by the staff of the Santa Fe Reporter to track Governor Richardson's campaign. Many thanks to everyone at the SFR for the mention. And yes, I'm due for a haircut.

--Wyndam